Alberta Election Polls

What the Alberta polls say

The average puts the UCP at 46.4% and the NDP at 44.3%, a UCP lead of 2.1 points. That is a 6.5-point swing toward the NDP on the lead since the 2023 election, when the UCP won by 8.6 points. Smaller parties together take about 13.7%, led by the Progressive Tory Party at 5.9%.

Translated into seats on the 2023 map, that projects the UCP to win 44 and the NDP 43 of 87 seats, with 44 needed for a majority. 5 divisions would change hands from 2023. The range is wide a year out: in 80% of simulated elections the UCP won between 34 and 57 seats, and it formed a majority in 56% of them.

Calgary is where the election will be decided. Polls with regional numbers average UCP 44.8%, NDP 45.9% in the city, effectively tied. Edmonton remains NDP territory (52.6% to 35.8%), and the UCP leads the rest of the province 58.4% to 33.3%.

Pollsters differ. Compared with other firms polling at the same time, Abacus Data has shown the UCP lead 4.8 points larger than average and Canadian Election Study 2.9 points smaller. The average corrects for these leans, so one firm's new poll moves it less than the raw numbers suggest.

Every Alberta poll since 2023

Shares of decided and leaning voters, newest first. Regional numbers are UCP–NDP.

How the average works

On any date, every poll fielded up to that day gets a weight. A poll's weight halves every 30 days, grows with the square root of its sample (capped at 2,000 so one very large panel cannot dominate), and is scaled by its pollster's 338Canada grade, from 1.0 for A+ firms to 0.2 for unrated ones. The average is the weighted mean.

Before averaging, each poll is adjusted for its firm's lean: how far that firm's polls have sat from other firms' polls taken around the same time. Firms with few polls are pulled toward zero lean. Polls commissioned by interest groups are listed but left out. Regional averages use the same weights without the lean adjustment.

Seats are projected by regional swing. Each of the 87 divisions starts from its 2023 UCP and NDP vote share and moves by the change in its region (Calgary, Edmonton or the rest of Alberta, with close-in suburbs such as Airdrie, St. Albert and Sherwood Park counted with their city), scaled so the province-wide total matches the average. Simulations then add a province-wide polling miss of about 4 points per party, a regional miss and local variation, and count how often each party wins each seat.

The average does not know which pollsters are right, only how they differ. Alberta polls have underestimated the UCP before, and a miss shared by every firm would not show here. The seat projection uses the 2023 boundaries and will move to the new map once it becomes law. It describes where the polls point today, not a forecast of election day.

Sources: pollster releases, the Wikipedia polling table and 338Canada's Alberta poll list. Each pollster name above links to its source. Last updated October 23, 2026.

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