British Columbia Election Polls

What the B.C. polls say

Going into election day the average puts the Conservatives at 42.5% and the NDP at 39.2%, a Conservative lead of 3.3 points. In 2024 the NDP won the vote by 1.6 points, so that is a 4.9-point swing toward the Conservatives on the lead. The Greens are at 11.0%, and OneBC and Centre BC together take about 6.1%.

Translated into seats on the 2024 map, that projects the Conservatives to win 54 and the NDP 37 of 93 seats, with the Greens holding the 2 ridings they won in 2024.47 seats make a majority. 10 ridings would change hands from 2024. In 80% of simulated elections the Conservatives won between 34 and 70 seats, and they formed a majority in 67% of them; the NDP did in 29%.

Metro Vancouver is where the election will be decided. Polls with regional numbers average Conservatives 39.9%, NDP 41.7% there, effectively tied. On Vancouver Island the NDP leads 43.2% to 32.3%, and the Conservatives lead the rest of the province 48.1% to 33.4%.

Pollsters differ. Compared with other firms polling at the same time, Angus Reid has shown the Conservative lead 3.1 points larger than average and Ipsos 1.9 points smaller. The average corrects for these leans, so one firm's new poll moves it less than the raw numbers suggest.

Every B.C. poll since 2024

Shares of decided (or decided and leaning) voters, newest first. Regional numbers are CON–NDP.

How the average works

On any date, every poll fielded up to that day gets a weight. A poll's weight halves every 30 days, grows with the square root of its sample (capped at 2,000 so one very large panel cannot dominate), and is scaled by its pollster's 338Canada grade, from 1.0 for A+ firms to 0.2 for unrated ones. The average is the weighted mean.

Before averaging, each poll is adjusted for its firm's lean: how far that firm's polls have sat from other firms' polls taken around the same time. Firms with few polls are pulled toward zero lean. Polls commissioned by interest groups are listed but left out. Regional averages use the same weights without the lean adjustment. Regions follow what pollsters publish: Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of B.C., which combines the Fraser Valley, Interior and North where a pollster reports them separately. Polls that report shares of all respondents including undecided voters, rather than of decided voters, are not comparable and are left out.

Seats are projected by regional swing. Each of the 93 ridings starts from its 2024 Conservative and NDP vote share and moves by the change in its region (Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island or the rest of B.C.), scaled so the province-wide total matches the average. Simulations then add a province-wide polling miss of about 4 points per party, a regional miss and local variation, and count how often each party wins each riding. The two ridings the Greens won in 2024 (Saanich North and the Islands, and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky) are treated as Green holds, so any Green gains elsewhere are not in the totals.

The average does not know which pollsters are right, only how they differ. A miss shared by every firm would not show here, and late shifts after the last polls would not either. With the two main parties this close, small shifts move many ridings, so the seat ranges are wide. This is where the polls pointed going in, not a forecast of the result.

Sources: pollster releases, the Wikipedia polling table, BC Ballot's poll list and Pallas Data. Each pollster name above links to its source. Last updated October 24, 2026.

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